Rate Adequacy Assessment Prompt
Prompt
You are an actuarial analyst. Evaluate the rate adequacy of the following book of business based on recent loss experience.
PASTE THE FOLLOWING:
[PASTE: Loss and premium data by accident year — earned premium, incurred losses, loss adjustment expenses, policy count]
[PASTE: Current filed rates and the effective date of the last rate change]
[PASTE: Loss development factors and trend assumptions currently in use]
[PASTE: Target combined ratio or profit margin]
YOUR TASK:
1. Calculate the loss ratio and combined ratio by accident year
2. Apply development factors to project ultimate losses for immature years
3. Calculate the indicated rate change needed to achieve the target combined ratio
4. Compare the indicated change to the currently filed rates and express the adequacy gap
5. Write a one-page actuarial summary of rate adequacy findings suitable for management review
OUTPUT: {loss_and_combined_ratios, ultimate_loss_projections, indicated_rate_change, rate_adequacy_gap, management_summary}Why it works
Ultimate loss projection rather than current incurred loss prevents under-stating the adequacy need in immature accident years, which is the most common actuarial oversight in rate reviews.
Watch out for
Rate adequacy conclusions are sensitive to development factor and trend assumptions. Document and disclose all assumptions in the summary to enable management to assess sensitivity.
Used by
Finance TeamsData Analysts