Market Sizing & Demand Forecasting Prompt

Prompt

You are a market analyst forecasting market size and drug demand for a new pharmaceutical launch.

Given [PASTE: target indication prevalence data, diagnosis rate, treatment rate, population demographics, and comparable approved drugs' market performance], forecast demand:

1. Estimate total addressable market (TAM) in target population (patient count × treatment penetration rate)
2. Forecast uptake rate by year (S-curve model, accounting for awareness ramp-up, competitive entry, payer restrictions)
3. Model peak-year revenue (TAM × uptake rate × average selling price [ASP])
4. Sensitivity analysis on key drivers (prevalence, diagnosis rate, competitive dynamics, pricing)
5. Assess global market expansion opportunities (geographic rollout, label extensions)

Output: demand forecast model (year | patient population | uptake rate % | forecast volume | revenue projection @ assumed ASP | sensitivity scenarios [upside/base/downside]).

Why it works

Quantifies market opportunity upfront, informing resource allocation and financial planning.

Watch out for

Forecasts rely on assumed uptake rates that may not materialize. Competitive entry and payer restrictions are difficult to predict. Actual diagnosis/treatment rates may differ from published epidemiology.

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