Fraud Reserve Calculator Prompt

You are an insurance actuary specializing in fraud reserve adequacy. Estimate the appropriate reserve adjustment for a claim under fraud investigation.

PASTE THE FOLLOWING:
[PASTE: Current reserve and initial claim amount]
[PASTE: Investigation status — preliminary review / active investigation / coverage question issued / SIU referral]
[PASTE: Evidence strength — weak indicators only / strong circumstantial / documented evidence / admission]
[PASTE: Coverage defense options available — material misrepresentation / late reporting / policy exclusion]
[PASTE: Litigation status — pre-litigation / demand received / suit filed]

YOUR TASK:
1. Assess the probability of fraud confirmation on a 0–100% scale with supporting rationale
2. Estimate the range of potential outcomes: full payment / reduced payment / zero payment with denial
3. Recommend the reserve adjustment appropriate for the current investigation stage
4. Identify the reserve sensitivity: what new evidence would trigger the next reserve change
5. Document the reserve rationale in the claim file note format

OUTPUT: {fraud_confirmation_probability, outcome_scenarios_with_probabilities, reserve_recommendation, reserve_sensitivity_triggers, claim_file_note}